Even the best mortgage interest rates predictions can be like making weather predictions - it is impossible to be precisely accurate with the mortgage rate forecast, and the further in advance you try to predict mortgage interest rates, the greater the margin of error in the prediction. Your best course of action is to wait until the time you want to take out a mortgage, and use a mortgage calculator to determine how much you can afford, based on the interest rate at the time.

On the other hand, even mathematically chaotic systems are predictable in broad terms.

If you think about the weather, you may not be able to predict the top temperature for a given day in July, but you can reasonably sure it will be within a certain range - say, if you live in Miami, between 80 and 95 degrees F, and if you live in Stockholm, between 16 and 25 degrees C.

Just as climate gives a broad indicator of summer top temperatures, economic climate gives a broad indicator of mortgage interest rates. Just as we can make moderately reliable weather predictions, we can make moderately reliable mortgage rates predictions.

Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Predictions Rise: Inflation

So called "real interest rates" are calculated assuming that inflation is zero. To get from the "real interest rate" to the "nominal interest rate", which is what your bank will charge you for your mortgage, you add on the annualised percentage rate of inflation, so mortgage rates predictions will increase as inflation increases.

Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Predictions Rise: Reduced Availability Of Credit

Financial markets operate on supply and demand. Mortgage lenders generally borrow the money they lend for mortgages, or at least 90% of it. Mortgage rates predictions must take into account whether the supply of money is increasing or decreasing.

Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Predictions Rise: Increased Risk

Apart from the market pricing factors, there is another factor which comes into play in any investment decision - risk. Mortgage rates in general will depend on the overall risk involved in the housing market.

Factors Which Make Mortgage Rates Predictions Fall: Government Intervention

The US Government is an 800-pound gorilla in the financial markets. By issuing Treasury bonds at different interest rates, the government can influence the overall market for money, and thus affect the "real" interest rate. Mortgage rates predictions will consider Federal actions in the markets.

Mortgage rates predictions are more complicated than weather predictions, because political factors influence mortgage rates predictions. This doesn't make accurate mortgage rates predictions impossible, of course, but it requires more than just a mathematical model to make accurate mortgage rates predictions - it takes a good political "nose" as well! When the time comes, you can find a good mortgage calculator at the Emergency Refinancing web site.